Everyone knows his production is not trending in the right direction, that catchers don’t exactly improve at age 30 and that his health remains a concern. Those are the reasons you avoid McCann.
Here is why the Red Sox should consider him.
1) He doesn’t need to catch every day for them. He might not even need to catch at all within a season or two.
2) His health might improve as a result of catching less.
3) His hitting might improve - even back to his once-star levels - as a result of his health improving.
4) He is very likely a very good culture/personality fit with these group of Red Sox players, something that could also lead to better production.
5) The Red Sox have lots of money to spend.
6) There aren’t THAT many ways they can spend that money. “Overpays” here and there won’t do them in, not with the talent coming up through their system.
Recently, the folks at Baseball America determined that the Boston Red Sox have the best 2014 and 2015 ETA Minor League talent of any MLB franchise. And it’s not even close. Houston’s the next closest team, well back, and they won like a game a week this season. Boston won its third World Series title in 10 seasons.
Boston’s organization is incredibly healthy and the future is bright, but the Red Sox also face tough decisions on four key contributors to its championship club. Maybe you’re not a WAR adherent, and I’m not either as a hard-and-fast determinant of a player’s quality. But it has merit and for the purposes of the point I would like to make, it is instructive. For this exercise I will use Baseball Reference’s version of the statistic and only focus on Boston’s Major League position player talent since the key pitchers all are under contract next season, setting Jon Lester’s almost-sure-to-be exercised option aside.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Napoli and Jose Iglesias contributed a combined 17.5 “wins” in 2013. There are, too, internal solutions for all of these issues. Jackie Bradley Jr. will slide in for Ellsbury, a 6-win player or so this season. Can Bradley be counted on for much more than 2 wins or so, though?
Napoli was a 4-win player and there’s no clear replacement for him. Drew and Iglesias combined for about 4.5 wins, with some of that output coming from Iglesias at third base. Xander Bogaerts figures to solve for that but counting on a 21-year old to perform like a 4-win player might be a tad presumptuous. A rejuvenated Will Middlebrooks would solve for some of that output too, but who really knows with the free-swinging youngster?
At catcher, Salty’s 3 wins could be covered in part by a combo of David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway and even Christian Vazquez but almost certainly not in full. Elsewhere, can we really count on MVPish campaigns from Shane Victorino and David Ortiz?
For me, this makes Napoli the most likely to return assuming the Red Sox can get comfortable with his health. But here’s the dilemma: some splashy signings like Brian McCann and/or Carlos Beltran could get the Red Sox right back to a 97-win team or so, but those same splashy signings would figure to block promising youngsters on the way.
On the one hand, you couldn’t blame the Red Sox for willfully taking a step back to a high-80’s or low-90’s win ball club. But on the other, they are going to have lots of money freed up. They have flexibility, a luxury, but that flexibility also makes things tricky in a number of ways.
My stance? I think Boston has too much money and too much in the way of trade-able pieces for a “bridge year.” Even if we can all get comfortable with a 2015 roster featuring Garin Cecchini, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens and Matt Barnes, I don’t think the team should settle in 2014. And so, however they need to do it, I think Boston’s offseason goal should be to come into 2014 expecting nothing less than the quality of club they fielded in 2013.
That’s going to be a tricky proposition, but a fun challenge to tackle for one of baseball’s best top-to-bottom organizations.
1) Many more Bostonians wish for John Connolly to be our next mayor than they do Marty Walsh.
2) Darn near 100% of Walsh supporters will cast their vote next Tuesday.
I have a great number of friends who, by and large, are disinterested in politics. And in 2013, who could blame them? I also know that these people, faced with a choice of Walsh or Connolly to run their city, would choose Connolly every time. They appreciate the sophistication gap, they sense John’s executive acumen is likely superior than Walsh’s and they recognize the more likely change agent is going to be someone like John Connolly, and not someone backed by entrenched special interests.
If you fall in the camp characterized above, for goodness sake, VOTE. If you know people like this, GET THEM TO VOTE. It is absolutely essential in this election.
John Connolly is Boston’s clear choice to be its next mayor. He only will be, though, if enough of us make sure our voice is heard next Tuesday.
Tomorrow, proudly, I am going to cast a vote for Boston Mayoral candidate John Connolly, and then hopefully do the same on November 5th should Connolly make it through tomorrow’s primary. The following accounts for my decision to support Connolly.
1) John entered the race before Mayor Menino announced he would not run. Of the 12 candidates, only John can claim this distinction.
I’d argue that one of the more corrosive elements of modern politics is the growing number of opportunists and careerists that comprise our government. Notable exceptions exist on both the local and national level but people in it for the sake of self-preservation and not for the purposes of serving and leading are a civic scourge. John’s in this not to curry favor with the Menino machine, not to play it safe, but to lead.
2) John understands that a city’s health and vibrancy starts and ends with education.
Critics have fairly accused Connolly of focusing A LOT on education. Young professionals without children and perhaps others with the means to send their children to private school accuse John of being something of a “one trick pony.” The Connolly campaign themselves refer to their candidate as “The Education Mayor.”
But this is what John understands. Good schools with dedicated, motivated and duly-rewarded teachers, where children, neighbors and friends from the same community can learn with one another, foster opportunity. More opportunity also means kids feel like their futures are too bright to jeopardize by turning to drugs, gangs and violence. Thriving schools make our city safer.
Meanwhile, if we do a better job of educating Boston children, that means more young entrepreneurs and job creators coming up through our ranks. And if our schools are everything they can be, young successful families (whose parents themselves might be job-creators) will be less likely to flee for the suburbs. Companies whose employees value Boston’s school system may be less likely to uproot and head to other markets like Austin or Silicon Valley. Graduates of our local colleges, knowing Boston is a fantastic place to raise a family, won’t be so ready to leave. I once heard someone in NY condescendingly say, “Boston’s a great place to learn and train.” That’s unacceptable.
You can accuse Connolly of an exceedingly narrow focus on schools, but please try to understand the symbiotic relationship public school quality has with public safety, employment and the economy.
3) John’s pedigreed, and John’s modest.
John’s a Roxbury Latin School, Harvard College and Boston College Law School grad. He’s a Ropes & Gray alum. John’s also taught disadvantaged children, is a Boston Public School parent, and eschewed what likely could have been a lucrative career in Law for one in public service. So if you’re the type who worries that our elected officials lack the sort of acumen or intellect that tend to characterize private sector leaders, John’s got you covered. If you prefer your politicians to be more like the common man, John leads a modest and family-oriented middle-class life, has been at the head of the classroom and, again, is himself a Boston Public School parent. He’s smart, accomplished, and can easily empathize with problems and challenges Bostonians face every day.
Finally, and this is personal, but John’s as high-integrity as they come. He’s in this for all the right reasons. The Boston you want is very likely the Boston he wants.
If, like me, you too would consider a vote for Connolly, you won’t regret it.
My grandmother turns 83 today, my son turns 2 today and my mother has been dead 2 months today. I have never felt happier, sadder, more independent, dependent, grateful, lucky, frustrated, angry, fortunate or alive. I have no idea what it all means but anyone willing to clue me in should speak up, and when I get some more clarity I will check back in.
At the playground, ya know?
What would you pay Jacoby Ellsbury? In every season he’s been healthy, he has performed anywhere ranging from an above average regular to an MVP candidate. This year I’d split the difference and suggest he’s playing like a mere All Star. He’s not young - he’ll be 30 in year one of his new free agent contract - and a lot of his value is tied to his 40 stolen bases in 43 attempts this season. How long can he keep that up? And on a related note, if you question his ability to continue to swipe bases this prolifically, then you likely question his ability to remain an elite defender. What does that do to his value? Can he stay healthy?
Related to free agency one hears the term “market-setting” quite a bit and if the free agent outfield market is any indicator of what Ellsbury stands to earn, he will soon be an extraordinarily wealthy man. Here are the top-10 highest paid outfielders ranked by 2013 salary:
1) Vernon Wells
2) Carl Crawford
3) Alfonso Soriano
4) Josh Hamilton
5) Matt Holliday
6) Jayson Werth
7) Curtis Granderson
8) Nick Markakis
9) Jose Bautista
10) Hunter Pence
Scott Boras could just slide this list across to any GM in baseball with a note reading “let me know when I can back up the truck,” right? Maybe. But couldn’t any GM in baseball slide that list right back to Scott and ask “who isn’t overpaid on this list?”
This is what makes the upcoming negotiation fascinating. And I’d caution you to beware the writer/analyst with overly strong opinions on whatever shakes down with Ellsbury. Chances are the teams that decide to bid or pass on him are well aware of the risks and rewards involved. It’s complicated and unpredictable.
To the extent there is a deal to be had, though, I would like to advocate the club makes a major trade at the 2013 trade deadline, one that nets them in the neighborhood of 2-3 wins over the final two months of the season, and one that positions them significantly better for the postseason.
One of the great folk/gospel songs, immortalized by the O Bro soundtrack. Here’s Jerry, David Grisman and others singing it.
Therapy for the coping.
One day last month in their clubhouse, Red Sox players were discussing rumors that the front office was trying to trade for Colorado pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez.
"I know there’s no way I could be in that deal," said Pedroia, who had a home run and four RBIs in Boston’s 2007 World Series sweep of the Rockies, "because I’m wanted for murder in Colorado."
Before Game 3 of that Series, the Red Sox were walking into Coors Field when a security guard sized up Pedroia, took him for an intruder rather than a ballplayer, and insisted that he produce I.D. Pedroia didn’t break stride. Recalling the bomb he hit with his first Series swing, he barked, “I’m the guy who took Jeff Francis onto the Mass Pike. How’s that?”